The good news is that tennis season is cranking up. The bad news is that I'm
tired of seeing the Australian Open function as the Rodney Dangerfield of
tennis. This is one Grand Slam desperately in need of reform. It's sickening
to hear annual tales of 150 degree temperatures, dangerous rubberized courts
and woefully injured players. These are just some of the reasons why Jim
Courier, Richard Krajicek, Yevgeny Kafelnikov, Steffi Graf, Моника Селеш, Jana
Novotna и Mary Joe Fernandez have pulled out.
Worst of all is timing: The first Grand Slam happens in Январь, и then
there's not another Slam until Июнь. That's horrible.
So here's my idea. Just jettison all the logistical concerns и ponder
this: Start the year off at the Lipton, then work the circuit geographically
until the Март Индиан-Уэллс tournament. Haul the players down to Австралия
to play the Aussie Open -- in late Март or early Апрель.
But enough dreaming. The reality is that the '98 Aussie Open will be filled
with drama и the consistent surprise that makes both circuits so compelling
these days. Of the eight semifinalists in the two fields, at least three will
be in their first Slam semi. Seeds will topple. Great matches will be held
at obscure hours. Weather -- heat, wind, pestilence, locusts -- will be a
major factor. и yet for all this, I still believe the holders, Pete Сампрас
and Мартина Хингис, will emerge the victors. и then the result will be long
forgotten by early Март. It's too bad. Австралия, the beautiful Melbourne
Park facility and, most of all, the fans who love the sport, deserve a much
better role for the year's first Grand Slam.
Here's a look at the fields:
Men: Re-Pete
Though I make Сампрас at least an even money favorite, there figures to be
excessive anarchy in this draw. Here's a look at how it would pan out should
all 16 seeds reach their appointed rounds:
1. Pete Сампрас
15. Mark Philippousis
10. Sergei Bruguera
7. Карлос Мойя
4. Jonas Bjorkman
14. Felix Mantilla
11. Alex Corretja
6. Petr Korda
5. Greg Rusedski
12. Gustavo Kuerten
13. Goran Ivanisevic
3. Micheal Chang
8. Thomas Muster
9. Marcelo Rios
16. Albert Costa
2. Patrick Rafter
Contenders
- You've got to believe Сампрас is hungry и eager to take his 11th Slam
title. One can only wonder about his condition in the week of the injury that
felled him less than two months ago in Кубок Дэвиса. But it's too hard to bet
against him at this point -- particularly since a number of challenging
players (Rusedski, Rafter, Muster и Chang) are all in the other half of the
draw. Only the possibility of a semi versus the volatile Petr Korda, the man
who took out Сампрас at the Открытый чемпионат США, should raise the holder's blood pressure.
- Patrick Rafter wants to prove with a vengeance that his Открытый чемпионат США win was no
fluke. What better place to do this than his native land? But I believe
Rafter isn't quite ready to be a relentless threat at the Slams, и that that
heavy pressures и oncourt challenges will take their toll.
- Michael Chang has had a rough time of it lately. An injury incurred last
week didn't help. Though ripe for an upset, he'll tenaciously grub his way
through his first three matches. By the round of 16 or quarters, he'll be
gone.
- Андрэ Агасси has lost 25 pounds и is once again rededicating himself to
tennis. He's slated to go up against consistent Albert Costa in the second
round. That will be a solid test, but assuming he gets past Costa, Агасси's
round of 16 encounter with Rafter could be the match of the tournament.
Early Round Intrigue
- Slovakian Karol Kucera is one of the hottest players on the tour. Off the
heels of his win in Sydney, Kucera figures to knock off Bruguera in the first
round. Only in Париж has Sergei shown himself an exceptionally willful Grand
Slam competitor.
- The winner of that match goes up against the winner of Daniel Vacek-Leyton
Hewitt. The 16-year-old Hewitt, son of doubles legend Bob Hewitt, has burst
on the scene by taking the title at Adelaide и earning wins over the likes
of Андрэ Агасси и Jonas Bjorkman. It will be fascinating to see if this
power-hitting baseliner can build off the momentum he's quickly generated.
- Bjorkman has the possiblity of a second round match versus one-time top
tenner Wayne Ferreira. There was a period when Ferreira seemed to have top
five potential и Bjorkman was a mere doubles specialist. Now, the tables
have turned. Ferreira might threaten the Swede, but Bjorkman's conditioning
and love of competition will carry him through.
- Gnat-like Aussie Scott Draper takes on talented Dominik Hrbaty in the first
round. Last year, Hrbaty held a 4-2 fifth set lead over Сампрас -- и then
hardly did much in '97. I'll pick Draper to win this, и then go on to give
a tough challenge to Korda.
- Likely second round: Rusedski versus Jonathan Stark, a big-serving clash.
They had an epic five-setter at Уимблдон last year, with Rusedski overcoming
a two sets to love deficit. Rusedski will have a much easier go this time,
but in the third round he'll have to deal with the nimble service returns of
Aussie Todd Woodbridge. Greg will get out of that one too, и then, in the
round of 16, have a wonderful match versus Gustavo Kuerten.
- Sad to say, but Goran Ivanisevic's best tennis is now behind him. Promise
unfulfilled. He'll lose to Tim Henman in the second round.
- Rios-Enqvist second round. Two of the finest talents in tennis. Rios,
confident from a win Auckland, will take this one.
Crunch Time
- Сампрас will sail through his early matches. He's supposed to meet
Philippoussis in the round of 16, but that's no lock, as the big-serving
Aussie seemed to lose focus in the last half of '97. It's not guaranteed that
Philippoussis will win his second rounder against fluid lefty Hicham Arazi or
gritty Hendrik Dreekman. и there's also the chance of Mark going out to Mal
Washington in the third round. Even if he wins all of these matches, he'll
find himselt outgunned by Сампрас.
- The Bjorkman-Korda quarterfinal, a rematch of their Открытый чемпионат США quarter which
Korda defaulted, will tell a different story. If Korda can serve well and
keep the Swede pinned, he'll take control of this match.
- But in the semis, Сампрас will seek revenge, и this time give no mercy to
the southpaw. He'll figure out the riddle of Korda's big backhand service
return. He'll slap many big winners of his own, jolting Korda into
overplaying. Most of all, Сампрас now respects the resurgent Korda enough to
stay mentally in control for the entire match.
- The other half of the draw will teem with anarchy. Kuerten will beat
Rusedski to reach the quarters versus Henman, who will have beaten Ivanisevic,
Nicolas Kiefer и Chang. But by then Tim will be too tired, и Kuerten will
get to the semis. I'd love to see him play Rafter, but I think he'll come up
against a surprise semifinalist -- Thomas Muster, Enqvist or even an inspired
native, Jason Stoltenberg.
- Rafter-Агасси is the kind of "crossover" event the sport needs: A tennis
match that transcends the sport. It will be great to see an inspired Агасси,
but I still believe he's not ready to return to the top ten. Rafter will win
this in four sets, but then find himself taken out in the quarters by one of
the surprise players just mentioned.
-- и by Финалы time, Сампрас will be clicking thoroughly on all cylinders.
As he has in all 10 of his Grand Slam victories, he'll quickly seize control
of the match, winning the first two sets with consummate ease. His opponent,
excited to be in a Grand Slam final, will compete nervously at first и not
settle down until the third set -- too late to make an impact. In a way,
Сампрас is a victim of dominance. He's never been stretched to a fifth set in
a Grand Slam final. That won't happen to him Down Under either.
Женщины: Hail Hingis
As much as I love Мартина Хингис, I was looking forward to the likes of the
tenacious Моника Селеш, the talented Jana Novotna and, most of all, the
resurgent Steffi Graf, to challenge her in Австралия. Alas, all of these
three have dropped out of the tournament. Seles' father is on his deathbed.
Novotna is conserving her energies. Graf doesn't feel ready to compete yet.
In theory, this should make the '98 Australian Open a romp for Hingis. But
the rub of being a shrewd counterpuncher is that romping is not easy. Lacking
the bazooka-like forehand of a Graf, the netrushing attack of a Navratilova or
oppressive firepower of a Seles, Hingis must still work diligently for every
point. She played more tennis last year than she might have imagined.
Hopefully, her opponents have studied her game и learned to exploit her
serve и forehand. Most of all, this is the year when everyone will be
gunning for Hingis. Opponents will run down those drop shots, anticipate
those lobs и be on the lookout for that dangerous backhand down the line.
And perhaps a few will be wise enough to deny Hingis pace, hit high to
forehand и show utter disrespect for her second serve. But then again,
Майbe Hingis, smart enough to have spoken of these weaknesses, has been
spending time in the lab.
Certainly Венус Уильямс has been studying. Her win over Hingis last week in
Sydney shows that she's hear to stay. This will be the first year we finally
see how consistent a player Venus can be. Likewise for her rapidly-emerging
sister, Serena, who last week knocked off another new face, Mirjana Lucic.
Here's where the seeds are located:
1. Мартина Хингис
14. Dominique Van Roost
11. Brenda Schultz-McCarthy
5. Мари Пьерс
3. Amanda Coetzer
10. Anke Huber
16. Ai Sugiyama
7. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario
8. Conchita Martinez
12. Sabrina Appelmans
9. Sandrine Testud
4. Iva Majoli
6. Irina Spirlea
13. Lisa Raymond
15. Ruxandra Dragomir
2. Линдсей Дэвенпорт
Things will start heating up Hingis in the third round when she goes up
against her purported rival, Анна Курникова. It will be interesting to see
if Kournikova has spent more time over the last few months honing her tactics
in lieu of her photo collection. I hope she has emphasized tennis, и would
like to see her make a run at Hingis. But she's still not polished enough.
In the quarters, Hingis goes up against the winner of the Schultz-McCarthy-
Pierce match. I think Pierce will overcome the big-serving Brenda. But Mary,
who's beaten Hingis several times, will lack the imagination necessary to take
a Grand Slam quarter from the holder.
As Hingis Мартes to the semis, there'll be an intriguing matchup between
Coetzer и Huber. Coetzer is a female Thomas Muster -- her biggest weapon is
fitness, grinding и working through every point. Huber is the unfulfilled
Steffi successor, a big power player who lacks intellectual resources. But I
think in this case she'll hit her way through Coetzer, only to be felled in
the quarters by the crafty и hopefully resurgent Arantxa Sanchez Vicario.
The last 18 months have been hard for Arantxa. Those tight losses she
suffered to Graf at Роланд Гаррос и Уимблдон set her back -- to have come
so close, but not bring home the bacon, was extremely frustrating. But I
think after relaxing a bit in the last year that Arantxa is ready for another
run. Still, she'll lack the guile necessary to beat Hingis in the semis.
The other half of the draw is wildly deregulated. Martinez, Appelmans,
Testud, Majoli, Raymond и Dragomir Май all be seeded, but even if one
reaches the semis, it's hard to take their chances seriously. Most
disappointing is Majoli, who has hardly made a dent since taking out Hingis in
Париж. I look for Lucic to take out Majoli in the second round. Lucic's draw
is favorable enough to get her past Testud in the round of 16 и even over
Martinez or Appelmans in the quarters. This Croatian, who many players think
hits the ball harder than anyone on the circuit, will reach the semis here and
emerge as a top ten player in '98.
Besides Lucic, the future belongs to Spirlea и the Williams sisters. Fate
has brought Spirlea и the Williams family together again in Австралия: She
takes on Serena in the first round, with the winner likely meeting Venus in
the second. First, Spirlea will ruin the sister rivalry by humbling Serena.
Then, versus Venus, she'll take control early, face a hitch in closing, but
finally get it done и never look back until she has to go up against Lindsay
Давенпорт in the quarters.
Now what can we Americans say about Lindsay? She's nice, she hits the tar
out of the ball and, well, she's nice. But she's also testimony to the
troubles tennis faces in America. Линдсей Дэвенпорт lacks that certain aura
of physical и mental dominance. Is it athleticism? Does American tennis
occur in too cushy a middle-class environment to nurture the drive necessary
for global success? Where have you gone, Chanda Rubin (she'll go down to ex-
American Pierce in the third round)?
In America, hungry talents like Spirlea are now going into soccer,
volleyball и basketball. In Австралия '98, though, Lindsay will pound her
way to the semis и then she и Spirlea will play a wonderful match --
arguably the best of the tournament. Whoever wins it will then be thoroughly
outclassed by Hingis. I'll give the nod to Давенпорт. Spirlea will be worn
out by all the emotional baggage of playing the Williams sisters. Lindsay
will actually find herself energized by the heat, engaged with the friendly
Aussies и feel relaxed enough to overcome Lucic и reach her first Grand
Slam final. But again, Hingis will reign supreme.
Сампрас caricature Copyright 1997 by Picture-Partners. Used with permission. No unauthorized replication is allowed without the express written consent of Picture-Partners.
